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Onyx Patterns

Recovery behaviour

How a trader behaves AFTER a losing streak ends — same setup, same size, same standards as before — is one of the cleanest predictors of long-term survival. The detector reads three failure modes (reckless, timid, performance-degraded) and reports the dominant one.

What it is

Recovery behaviour is what happens in your first few trades after a losing streak ends. The healthy answer is invisible — same setup, same size, same standards. The behavioural failure modes are three:

  • Reckless recovery — the trader sizes UP after the streak ends to 'win it back faster'. Doubles down at the very moment the edge has been most volatile; sequenced risk just tripled at the worst possible time.
  • Timid recovery — the trader sizes DOWN to 'stay safe'. Misses the snap-back winners that typically follow a drawdown and prolongs the climb out of the trough.
  • Performance recovery — same size as baseline but the win-rate degrades. The trader rushes recovery setups, takes marginal entries 'because I need a winner', and the aggregate win-rate slips.

The detector identifies losing streaks (≥ 3 consecutive losers), takes the first few trades after each streak ends, and compares those 'recovery trades' to the baseline (every trade NOT in a recovery window). Three flags fire independently; the dominant pattern is reported.

Formula
Approach: walk the trade history chronologically, identify clusters of consecutive losing trades whose length crosses a minimum streak threshold, take the first trades after each cluster ends as the 'recovery window', and compare those trades to everything else (the baseline) on volume and win-rate. Three independent flags drive the verdict — reckless (sized up), timid (sized down), and performance (win-rate gap). When two flags fire together the volume signal takes precedence.
 
TradeOnyx-internal: the streak length, recovery window size, minimum streak count, volume-multiplier thresholds for reckless / timid, and the win-rate gap that triggers the performance flag are calibrated empirically and not published.
Example

Across the analysis window: 4 identified losing streaks. The first trade after each streak averages 2× the trader's normal volume; recovery win-rate sits ~25 percentage points below the baseline rate.

ResultCard emits with verdict **Reckless**: both reckless (volume sized up) and performance (win-rate gap) flags fire, but the volume signal is the more dangerous and takes precedence. The actionable read: lock the post-streak size to the declared per-trade fraction, no exceptions.
How to read it

Three patterns, three different fixes:

  • Reckless — sized up after the streak. The fix is mechanical: a fixed-fractional rule for the first few trades after every streak-end. Never above the normal per-trade size, no 'just this once' exceptions. The math behind reckless recovery is exactly why account-blowing happens after a string of small losses, not after a single big one.
  • Timid — sized down after the streak. Counter-intuitively almost as costly as reckless: the snap-back winners that typically follow a drawdown happen at half-size, the recovery climb takes twice as long, and the trader gets demoralised faster. Lock the post-streak size to the declared per-trade risk — the streak ended, the strategy didn't.
  • Performance — same size, lower win-rate. The trader is rushing marginal entries 'because I need a winner'. The fix is criteria-discipline: write the A-grade setup criteria into the journal entry BEFORE entering the first 3 post-streak trades. Refuse anything that doesn't clear the bar.

When reckless AND performance fire together (sized up AND lower win-rate), the report says reckless because the volume signal is the more catastrophic of the two — the size compounds the win-rate drop into a quadrupled loss footprint.

Tier: Pro. Behavioural-discipline axis. Co-fires with Position-Sizing-Consistency (TRA-215) when the pattern is volume-shaped, and with the Discipline-Scorecard's risk-sizing axis. Pairs naturally with Revenge-Trading (TRA-219) — same root state (cannot accept the loss) but a different temporal lens (immediate re-entry vs post-streak first-trades).

Where TradeOnyx uses it

How to read the card:

1. Hero (left) — the recovery vs baseline volume ratio (e.g. 2.0× = recovery trades are double normal size, 0.5× = half normal size, ~1.0× = same size). The verdict word above (Reckless / Timid / Underperforming) tells you which pattern dominates. 2. Two MicroStats — Recovery win-rate and Baseline win-rate side-by-side. The gap is the secondary read. 3. Hint line — pattern-specific. Each of the three failure modes has its own actionable intervention; the card's hint switches automatically based on the dominant pattern.

Re-look frequency: weekly. Recovery patterns stabilise after ~3-4 streak cycles; daily noise isn't useful here.

Tier: Pro.

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