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Onyx Patterns

Overtrading

The behavioural pattern of forcing trades on days when the market isn't offering them. The detector groups your trades by day, computes your own pace, and flags days where the count blew past — but only when those days also bled P&L.

What it is

Overtrading is the behavioural pattern of taking too many positions in a session, often beyond what the market's setup-density actually warrants. The trader is bored, restless, or feels they 'need to stay active'. Setup quality drops; the equity curve quietly bleeds on those days.

The detector reads two signals from the trade history:

  • Pace signal — group all closed trades by day, compute the trader's own median trades-per-day, and flag days where the count crossed a multiplier of that pace. The user's OWN baseline is the comparison, not a global one — a scalper with 10 trades/day and a swing trader with 1 trade/day each have their own definition of 'overtrading'.
  • P&L direction guard — flagged days must additionally have aggregate net P&L MATERIALLY WORSE than normal-pace days. A high-count day that happened to be more profitable was a busy market the trader caught, not behavioural overtrading. The card stays silent in that case.

Both signals must fire for the card to emit. This avoids slandering a productive scalping day with a 'you traded too much' label when the trader actually performed well.

Formula
Approach: group all closed trades by close-day. Compute the user's own median trades-per-day across active days. Identify overtrading days as those where the trade count crossed a multiplier of that median. Aggregate net P&L per day, compare avg P&L on overtrading days vs normal-pace days. The card emits when the rate of overtrading days is above threshold AND the P&L delta is materially negative.
 
TradeOnyx-internal: the multiplier above the user's median that classifies a day as overtrading, the minimum number of active days, the minimum overtrading-day count, and the emission rate threshold are calibrated empirically and not published.
Example

20 active trading days. Median pace: 2 trades/day. 4 of those days closed with 5+ trades each (well above pace) AND those 4 days each ended with negative net P&L while normal-pace days averaged a positive return.

ResultCard emits with verdict **Mild**: overtrading rate 20%, with avg P&L on those days clearly below normal-day P&L. The pattern says 'when count spikes above pace, edge goes with it' — actionable as a daily trade-cap rule.
How to read it

Severity bands on the overtrading rate: - Mild — occasional overtrading on a slow week. Note in the journal; one bad week per month is human. - Moderate — established pattern. About one in four active days is over-pace AND money-losing. The fix is a daily trade-cap rule. - Severe — dominant mode. The trader's elevated pace IS the new normal — and it's the bleeding edge. Stop new entries until the rate falls back materially or paper-trade until it does.

The Onyx-Engine assigns the rate to one of these bands; the cutoff thresholds are TradeOnyx-internal calibration.

Why the P&L direction guard matters. A pure-count detector would slander a productive scalping day. The market sometimes really does offer 8 setups when 2 is the norm — those days are not the problem. The detector requires the high-count days to also be MATERIALLY WORSE than normal days; only then is the pattern genuinely behavioural.

The fix is mechanical. Daily trade-cap: a number above which today's session ends regardless of opportunity. Most users find their own median plus 50 % is the right ceiling — restrictive enough to break the bored-clicking habit, generous enough to ride genuinely-active markets. Pair the cap with the Discipline-Scorecard's plan-adherence axis so each day's count vs cap shows up in the weekly review.

Tier: Pro. Behavioural-discipline axis. Often co-fires with Revenge-Trading (TRA-219) — same root state (restless / FOMO / chasing), two different symptoms.

Where TradeOnyx uses it

How to read the card:

1. Hero (left)overtrading rate as a percentage with a severity verdict. 2. Two MicroStats — Your usual pace (median trades/day) and Normal-day P&L (the baseline aggregate per typical day). 3. Cost callout (red box) — the avg P&L on overtrading days side-by-side with the per-day suffix. The number should be jarring; that's the point. 4. Hint line — actionable: the daily trade-cap rule.

Re-look frequency: weekly. Daily fluctuations are noise; the pattern stabilises after ~3-4 weeks of trading.

Tier: Pro.

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