A bear market is the regime where an asset class trades at least 20% below its multi-month high and the EMA50 sits below the EMA200 on the leading proxy of that class. Mirror image of the bull definition (and the standard literature threshold). Same two-condition logic: 20% off the high alone can fire on a sharp correction inside a longer bull; the EMA cross confirms the trend has actually flipped.
The regime is computed daily against the same proxy ladder used for bull (SPX, GLD, BTC, FX pair). Crypto's threshold is bumped to 25% because 20% drawdowns are routine in that asset class — using the stock-market threshold would call every routine crypto pullback a 'bear market.' FX pairs use a tighter 12% because 20% in a major pair is a structural shock, not a regime.
A confirmed bear regime is the trader's defensive posture: - Bias direction: prefer short setups. Long trades require a higher bar — the trend works against you on the average move. - Sizing: smaller. Bear markets carry larger ranges + faster moves; what was a 1R stop in a bull regime is often a 0.6R stop in the same chart. Risk percentage stays the same; size adjusts down. - Bear-market rally trap: counter-trend rallies in bears can be 20-30%+ in days. Shorts get covered, longs pile in, then the trend resumes. The discipline is to let the rally run before re-shorting, not to fade it on day one. - Quality over quantity: in bull markets, mediocre setups still work because the tide carries them. In bears, mediocre setups get punished. Take only the cleanest entries, skip the borderline ones. - Watch for: shrinking distance below the EMA200 + a flattening EMA50 slope. Regime flips don't happen instantly, but the lead-up is visible.
TradeOnyx surfaces the bear regime as a red-tinted illustration in the Briefing hero. Hover the figure to read the trading-implication explainer; the same hover reveals an Open-in-Academy link back to this article. The regime is recomputed daily against the asset class's proxy symbol — once SPX or BTC drops the 20% / 25% threshold below its multi-month high *and* the EMA50/200 cross flips, the bull image swaps to bear automatically and the trader sees the regime change at the morning open.
The most expensive trader-mistake in a bear regime is fighting it. The cheapest discipline TradeOnyx enforces: when the regime tile shows bear, the briefing's daily-coach AI is prompted to re-frame any planned long setups with a 'why are you taking the other side of the regime?' question — same data, different framing. It's not a block, just a deliberate friction at the moment the trade is being planned.