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Onyx Patterns

London-NY overlap

13:00-17:00 UTC. Both London and New York are simultaneously open. Spreads tightest, depth deepest, the most institutional money moving per minute of the trading day. The detector tells you whether you're capturing this window, struggling in it, or systematically missing it.

What it is

Session overlap is the four-hour window (13:00-17:00 UTC, exclusive upper bound) when both the London and New York sessions are simultaneously open. It's the highest-liquidity window of the trading day across most asset classes:

  • FX: dual book-presence in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY produces the tightest spreads of the day.
  • US equity index futures + cash equities: NY morning + late London = peak depth.
  • Crypto: less directly affected (24/7 market) but volume still spikes when both desks are staffed.
  • Commodities: gold, oil, copper all see their tightest intraday spreads here.

The detector buckets trades by whether their open_time falls inside the window (UTC hour ∈ {13, 14, 15, 16}) and surfaces three patterns:

  • Overlap specialist — meaningful sample in both buckets, overlap materially outperforms.
  • Overlap struggler — meaningful sample in both buckets, overlap materially underperforms.
  • Overlap avoidant — overlap-share is < 15 % of total trades despite the trader being active enough (≥ 15 outside-overlap trades) to prove they could be in the window if they wanted.

Card stays silent when buckets are balanced (the trader's edge is regime-agnostic — no actionable finding) or when the outside-overlap baseline is too thin to claim either pattern.

Formula
Approach (textbook): for each closed trade with an open_time, check whether `open_time.hour` (UTC) is in {13, 14, 15, 16}. Bucket as 'overlap' or 'outside'. Per bucket compute count, win-rate, avg P&L. The overlap-share is `overlap_count / (overlap_count + outside_count)`. Decide between specialist / struggler / avoidant by comparing per-bucket win-rate gap and avg-P&L relative gap against the share threshold.
 
TradeOnyx-internal: the minimum sample required for each bucket, the share-threshold for the avoidance verdict, the win-rate gap threshold, and the avg-P&L relative-gap threshold are calibrated empirically and not published. The verdict tie-break logic (avoidance fires only when both 'low overlap count' AND 'low overlap share' apply) is also internal calibration.
Example

Across the analysis window: 3 trades opened in the 13:00-17:00 UTC overlap window, 28 trades opened outside. Overlap-share: 9.7 %.

ResultCard emits with verdict **Avoidant**: less than 10 % of trades land in the overlap despite the trader being active enough on either side. Actionable read: schedule conflict (likely European afternoon office hours) or unconscious habit. Five paper-trades in the overlap are enough to test whether the edge transfers.
How to read it

The three verdicts:

  • Overlap specialist. You're capturing the prime liquidity window cleanly. The volatility structure of the overlap fits your setup — likely a momentum or breakout edge that benefits from the depth and order-flow density. The fix is mostly defensive: don't let the success bleed into over-trading the window. Specialists who try to size up too aggressively are the most common path back to struggler.
  • Overlap struggler. Your edge breaks down in the overlap. The likely cause: your setup is calibrated for a quieter regime (Asian session, late NY, weekend crypto) and the overlap's faster-moving prices invalidate the signals before you can act. Two clean fixes: half-size in the overlap until the gap closes, OR sit out entirely and trade the windows where your edge already works. Don't grind through.
  • Overlap avoidant. You barely trade the overlap despite being active outside it. Two typical causes: workday conflict (09:00-13:00 NY / 13:00-17:00 UTC clashes with European-afternoon office hours) or unconscious habit (you opened your trading routine in a different window and never reset it). The fix is conscious: decide whether avoidance is intentional. If it's a workday conflict, fine — but make sure you've actually run the experiment of trading the overlap before assuming the edge wouldn't transfer.

The Onyx-Engine reports whichever pattern is dominant in your data; balanced behaviour (the overlap bucket tracks the outside bucket within tolerance) keeps the card silent.

Why the overlap is structurally different from other hour buckets. Hour-of-day analysis (the Hour-Buckets free-tier card) shows your win-rate per UTC hour. The session-overlap card narrows that to a market-microstructure-defined window. The 13:00-17:00 UTC band isn't 'four random hours that happen to be busy' — it's the specific window where DUAL-VENUE liquidity stacks. That's why the bucket cleanly separates from outside even when individual hours within it look similar to neighbouring hours: the order-flow regime is fundamentally different.

Limitations.

  • Fixed window. The overlap is hardcoded to 13:00-17:00 UTC. In US daylight-saving winter the NY session shifts to 14:30 UTC, leaving 13:00 in late London only. The card slightly over-counts the overlap in those four winter months. Future versions may DST-adjust.
  • Asset-class agnostic. A FX trader and a crypto trader both get the same overlap window. Crypto is 24/7 so the overlap matters less; the card's verdict is most actionable for FX, equity-index futures, and commodity traders.
  • Avoidance threshold is fixed at 15 %. Some swing traders intentionally hold positions across the overlap rather than entering inside it; the avoidance verdict will misfire on them. Read the verdict as 'check whether your avoidance is intentional', not 'you must trade the overlap'.

Tier: Pro. Wave 5 (Market Context) — closes the wave alongside Performance × Regime (TRA-226) and News-proximity (TRA-227). Pairs with Hour-Buckets (free) which shows the per-hour distribution.

Where TradeOnyx uses it

How to read the card:

1. Hero (left) — verdict word + 'you win/lose/miss the overlap'. Single-glance read. 2. Four MicroStatswin-rate overlap vs outside, avg P&L overlap vs outside. Avoidance variant shows '—' for overlap-side stats since the sample is too thin to claim numbers. 3. Hint line — the rule that addresses the dominant verdict.

Re-look frequency: monthly. Trading-window habits change slowly; daily noise is irrelevant.

Tier: Pro.

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