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Onyx Patterns

Mistake-free streak

Discipline is a sustained behaviour, not a per-trade event. The detector measures both how long you can run clean (longest streak) and how quickly you recover after a slip (avg gap between mistakes), then trends those metrics across your trade history.

What it is

Mistake-free streak is the longest consecutive run of trades the user has executed without ANY mistake-category tag attached. Recovery time is the mean count of clean trades between two consecutive mistake-tagged trades — how quickly the trader returns to clean execution after a slip.

The discipline trend verdict compares the recent half of the trader's history against the earlier half by avg-gap. Improving = recent gaps are at least 50 % wider than earlier (the journaling work is sticking). Declining = recent gaps are at least 33 % narrower (slips clustering more often). Stable = neither. Spotless = zero mistakes in the entire window with a meaningful streak.

Formula
Approach (textbook): sort trades by close_time ascending, project to a list of mistake-flag booleans (True iff trade has ≥ 1 mistake-category tag). Walk: longest_clean_run = max consecutive False. current_clean_run = trailing False count. gaps = counts of False between consecutive True. avg_gap, max_gap from the gap list. Trend: split flags at midpoint, compute earlier/recent half avg gaps, compare ratio.
 
TradeOnyx-internal: the minimum total trade count, minimum mistakes for gap math, and trend thresholds are calibrated empirically and not published.
Example

Across 50 trades: longest clean streak = 22, current clean streak = 7, mistake count = 8, avg gap = 4.5 trades, max gap = 9 trades. Earlier-half avg gap = 2.5, recent-half avg gap = 6.5 → ratio 2.6 → improving.

ResultCard emits with verdict **Improving**: the trader's gaps between mistakes are widening — discipline is building. The 22-trade streak is the success ceiling; the current 7-trade streak says they're on a fresh run. Don't relax the rules; the moment journaling stops policing them, gaps narrow again.
How to read it

Streak ≠ Recovery. A trader with a 22-streak and avg-gap of 5 sustains long clean stretches but slips into clusters. A trader with 7-streak and avg-gap of 4 oscillates — neither sustains nor recovers. Different fixes:

  • High streak, low avg-gap: the trader's discipline holds for stretches then collapses. Identify the trigger that breaks the streak (often: a single losing day) and write a rule that prevents the cascade.
  • Low streak, low avg-gap: the trader's discipline is brittle generally. Start by establishing ANY streak — a single 5-trade clean run logged in the journal, then 6, then 7. Build the muscle.
  • High streak, high avg-gap: the user already has working discipline. Card stays mostly silent here.

Trend reading. Improving = the work is paying off. Declining = the rule that used to police this is no longer being honoured. Spotless usually means the user stopped tagging mistakes (lapse in journaling discipline) — re-check that you're labelling honestly.

Tier: Pro. Wave 6 (Mistake Analysis) — closes the wave alongside top-mistakes (TRA-235), frequency-over-time (TRA-236), and pair co-occurrence (TRA-237).

Where TradeOnyx uses it

How to read the card: Hero shows the longest clean streak with the trend verdict. MicroStats break out avg gap, max gap, and the per-half avg gaps that drove the trend. The hint adapts to the verdict.

Tier: Pro.

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