Expectancy is the probability-weighted outcome of a trade. It multiplies your win-rate by your average win, subtracts your loss-rate times your average loss, and gives you a euro value per trade. Positive expectancy means every time you take the setup you're, on average, adding money to the account. Negative expectancy means you're paying the market to keep playing. The metric collapses three different numbers — how often, how much when right, how much when wrong — into one decision-grade output.
Win rate 55%, average win €220, average loss €140.
Read it in euro per trade against your average risk: - Negative — stop trading the setup. The math is against you. - Near zero — you're paying commissions for entertainment. Sub-marginal edge. - 5% to 15% of avg risk — real but thin. Volume + discipline keep it alive. - 15% to 30% of avg risk — solid retail edge. Most consistently profitable traders sit here. - Above 30% of avg risk — strong. Worth scaling cautiously, watching variance.
Expectancy times trade frequency = your expected weekly P&L. That's the number that decides whether the strategy is worth the screen-time at all.
Expectancy is the metric you check before you take the next setup. Win-rate makes you feel good, profit factor confirms the strategy works in aggregate, but expectancy answers the question that actually matters at the click moment: what's the average outcome of pulling this trigger?
TradeOnyx expresses your expectancy as euro per trade in the Advanced metrics block of the Overview tab — not an abstract ratio, an actual number you'd recognise on a bank statement. A HelpTip next to the value walks you through what it means in context with your current win-rate and average win/loss, so you read the metric without having to remember the formula.
The value updates with every closed trade and respects the period filter, so you can compare your expectancy this month against last quarter's at one glance. When the number drifts down — even while win-rate stays flat — that's TradeOnyx telling you your average winner shrunk or your average loser grew, and the strategy is quietly degrading before the equity curve catches up.